Take Back Control Make America Great Again
'Brand America Great Once more', aka #MAGA, is indisputably a great slogan. Or equally Trump would put it, a really really smashing and wonderful slogan.
It does all the things you lot desire a slogan to do. Information technology'due south short and punchy, like shooting fish in a barrel to remember, withal fun to shout the hundredth time, like barracking for a football game team.
It conveys a sentiment that'due south impossible to disagree with, nevertheless it carries a sneaky payload (the assertion that America isn't great whatsoever more, and it's the other lot's mistake).
The Brexiters had a killer slogan likewise. 'Take Back Control'. Over again: brusque, punchy, impossible to deny. And it had too a sneaky payload: you've lost control and it's Europe'due south mistake.
I couldn't tell you lot what the Remainers' slogan was. And I tin can't tell you what Hillary Clinton's is, either.
Donald Trump's slogan has caught on. Credit:Bloomberg
two. Facts don't matter
If y'all're a liberal you probably obsessively posted Facebook links to fact-check columns on Trump in which he endlessly states non-truths that anyone with a passing familiarity with Google can disprove in a microsecond.
Sorry, it won't aid.
This isn't fifty-fifty near the 'mail service-fact politics' that everyone is going on nigh.
Election politics have never been nearly facts.
People don't vote on facts. They vote on promises. When you vote, you're choosing a time to come. And there are no facts most the future. Zilch.
At that place are only predictions and promises.
The Brexiteers lied and fudged. They made claims about European union regulations that were rubbish, they vastly overestimated the net British contribution to the European union budget and then they said all that money could instead exist spent on the NHS.
They said Europe would be fine with a Great britain that rejected European clearing just stayed in the unmarried marketplace.
They implied that the UK had no sovereignty on bug that, in fact, it had enough of sovereignty over.
They flatly contradicted an array of economists who predicted economic gloom.
Brexit leader Michael Gove was mocked for saying "people in this state have had enough of experts".
But he was right. Voters generally don't consult experts for the facts earlier voting.
Britain's National Health Services was used as part of the Leave entrada. Credit:Getty Images
3. Polls can be wrong and ofttimes are
British pollsters famously got both the Brexit and the 2015 Britain general election wrong.
In its post-election analysis, YouGov admitted it had oversampled the immature and undersampled the old. Merely another 1.4 per cent of the mistake they only couldn't piece of work out.
After Brexit they had another go. They complained that people paid besides much attention to the polls that predicted Remain and dismissed the ones that predicted Leave. If you don't think Trump volition win, yous discount polls that predict the opposite.
They likewise found online polls were much more accurate than phone polls, which skewed the 'poll of polls' estimate which is supposed to smooth out errors.
More mostly, polling experts say the Brexit pollsters practical 'sampling mistake' corrections that corresponded to increasingly outdated predictions about how people vote (meet below).
The importance of these corrections is brought dwelling by a recent experiment by The New York Times, in which they gave 4 reputable pollsters the same raw polling data.
The pollsters came back with Clinton at +four, +3 and +1, and Trump at +1.
This wasn't the margin of error, past which different polls get unlike results past sampling dissimilar people. This was the inner fudging of the pollsters, exposed.
Post-Brexit breakdowns of voting patterns revealed that the biggest determinant of someone'southward vote was their level of teaching.
An overwhelming proportion of voters with mail service-graduate degrees voted Remain.
An overwhelming proportion of voters with no post-high-school qualifications voted Leave.
It was a bigger determinant than income, or race, or political allegiance, or geographical location.
Arguably, the US election is a similar post-party-political 1: many Americans are non really voting for a Republican or a Democrat, they are voting on what those people represent: the 'political institution' vs a 'mad every bit hell and not going to take it any more' interloper.
This is a similar choice to the Brexit choice.
Then the split amongst voters is probable to exist the aforementioned.
And if there is a large, non-tertiary-educated hinterland set and mobilised to vote for Trump, they're not where the media are, and they're non where your social media are (and, as in a higher place, they're not where the pollsters are).
They're invisible, and they're about to vote.
Nigel Farage, the leader of UKIP, tapped into the angry voter during the Brexit campaign. Credit:Getty Images
v. The only affair to fear is fear itself
'Project Fearfulness' is said to have won the Scottish referendum debate: a loud and relentless barrage of bad news about what independence would hateful for the Scots.
In the Brexit debate, the Remain campaign was repeatedly derided as 'Project Fear Mark Ii', for its dire predictions of post-Brexit economic woe.
But Leave played on fear also – and much more effectively.
This was fearfulness of immigrants taking jobs, taking houses, taking school places, taking hospital beds.
This was fear of Brussels smothering British justice and strangling business with reddish tape.
This was fear of the ascension of Germany equally a bigger, stronger European power.
This was fear of the dead-weight consequence of Hellenic republic etc on the continent's economy.
But it was by and large fear of immigrants.
A taxi commuter in Liverpool told me last calendar month he voted for Brexit because "one of my passengers was raped past a grouping of Somali men at a nightclub".
I asked him what that had to do with the European union.
He didn't reply.
Fearfulness of immigrants is the political theme of the concluding ii years, at least. As a tool to mobilise voters, it works.
And Trump owns it.
vi. Bonus points
And so not to leave you utterly depressed, here are a couple of comforting points.
- In both the Brexit and Scottish referenda, the side with the nearly legacy media support won the day.
- Hillary Clinton has several qualities that David Cameron lacked.
- None of the major Brexit proponents, not even Boris Johnson, had been recorded boasting about grabbing women's undercarriage.
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/make-america-great-again-is-a-great-slogan-and-other-lessons-from-brexit-for-the-us-election-20161012-gs05gm.html
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